A report published by the UK Energy Research Centre has argued that the use of natural gas as a means for generating electricity in the UK may have to reduce over the next 30 years.
It was announced last November that the UK's remaining coal-fired power stations will be phased out by 2025. The Government intend to replace these with new gas plants according to the five year plan recently published by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC).
However this latest report calls into question the implications of pursuing gas-fuelled electricity generation. Without carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, gas could only make up 10% of the UK's electricity production in 2050, if the Government is to try and meet their current obligations to reduce carbon emissions.
Professor Jim Watson from the UK Energy Research Centre commented: ''There is limited scope for gas to act as a bridge (to a decarbonised future). If we stick to carbon targets and have CCS, you've got a significant amount of gas being burned in the energy system, perhaps half the current levels by 2050. But if we stick to carbon targets and don't have CCS you are down to the 10% level compared to current gas demand by 2050.''
The UK's research into CCS was dealt a blow in the 2015 Autumn statement delivered by George Osbourne when he confirmed a £1 billion CCS scheme was being scrapped on the grounds of cost.
Professor Mike Bradshaw from the Warwick Business School raised concerns over the future availability of CCS: ''If you look around the world at where CCS is at, my view would be there isn't enough going on to guarantee you'll have that available. The UK was one of the few countries that was actually serious about this - a charitable interpretation of the Government's decision was that they were just hoping that someone else will bring the cost down and we'll buy it in when we need it, but that is quite a risky decision to make.''
The report also raised concerns that the current capacity market mechanism will not be attractive enough to make investors build new gas-fuelled power plants. They argue that building gas plants without CCS which will only operate on an intermittent basis will lead to a poor return on investment.
Professor Watson added: ''Even if you want more gas to replace coal in the power sector, the policy framework clearly isn't working. The capacity market isn't doing what it needs to do, and I suspect they will have to put in place much stronger economic incentives for new gas developers.''
The reports adds that the use of gas for generating electricity will need to be addressed over the next decade, as the role of gas in industry and domestic heating will prove critical on the course to meeting the 2050 emission targets.
