Leaked report says we must change food production to save the world

Scientists warn that attempts to solve the climate crisis by cutting carbon emissions from only cars, factories and power plants are doomed to failure.

A leaked draft of a Report on climate change and land use, which is now being debated in Geneva by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), states that it will be impossible to keep global temperatures at safe levels unless there is also a transformation in the way the world produces food and manages land.

The Report warns that:

• humans now exploit 72% of the planet's ice-free surface to feed, clothe and support the Earth's growing population;
• agriculture, forestry and other land use produces almost a quarter of greenhouse gas emissions;
• about half of all emissions of methane, one of the more potent greenhouse gases, come from cattle and rice fields;
• deforestation and the removal of peat lands cause further significant levels of carbon emissions;
• intensive agriculture has also increased soil erosion and reduced amounts of organic material in the ground.

The Report warns that these problems are likely to get worse, stating, "climate change exacerbates land degradation through increases in rainfall intensity, flooding, drought frequency and severity, heat stress, wind, sea-level rise and wave action".

It is a bleak analysis of the dangers ahead and comes when rising greenhouse gas emissions have made news after severe events, including:

• arctic sea-ice coverage reached near record lows for July;
• the heatwaves that hit Europe last month were between 1.5°C and 3°C higher because of climate change;
• global temperatures for July were 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels for the month.

The IPCC has warned that rises greater than 1.5°C risk triggering climatic destabilisation - while those higher than 2°C make such events even more likely. Bob Ward, policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, said, “we are now getting very close to some dangerous tipping points in the behaviour of the climate – but as this latest leaked report of the IPCC’s work reveals, it is going to be very difficult to achieve the cuts we need to make to prevent that happening”.

The Report emphasises that land will have to be managed more sustainably so that it releases much less carbon than at present. This means:

• peat lands will need to be restored by halting drainage schemes;
• meat consumption will have to be cut to reduce methane production;
• food waste will have to be reduced.

The Report also proposes a major shift towards vegetarian and vegan diets, that the "consumption of healthy and sustainable diets, such as those based on coarse grains, pulses and vegetables, and nuts and seeds … presents major opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions".

It adds that policies need to include:

• improved access to markets;
• empowering women farmers;
• expanding access to agricultural services;
• strengthening land tenure security;
• early warning systems for weather, crop yields and seasonal climate events.

Nations are scheduled to meet in late 2020, probably in the UK, at a key conference where delegates will plan how to achieve effective zero-carbon emission policies over the next few decades.