Even if we are able to meet the climate commitments set out by our governments, generations that follow are still set to face rising oceans and coastal inundations well into the 2300s, recent research has revealed.
The sea levels rising is now set to challenge human civilisation for centuries to come - this will continue to occur, even if the internationally agreed climate goals are met, and even then if the current planet-warming emissions are immediately eliminated. The lag time between the rising global temperatures and the resulting knock-on impact of coastal inundation has meant that the world will continuously be dealing with the ever-rising sea levels into the 2300s, sadly regardless of the prompt action we are starting to undertake to address the climate crisis - the study has highlighted that even if the governments meet their commitments (those from the landmark 2015 Paris Climate Agreement), that the first 15-year period of this deal will still result in enough emissions that will cause the sea levels to increase by around the year 2300.
Modelled by researchers, this scenario has assumed that all countries manage to make their produced emissions reductions by 2030, and then following that, to abruptly eliminate all planet-warming gases from that point onwards. More realistically, only a small number of the countries are on track to meet their Paris targets - they are looking to limit global heating to 2°C above the pre-industrial area.
Peter Clark, an Oregon State University Climate Scientist, as well as co-author of the study, has published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, "Even with the Paris pledges there will be a large amount of sea-level rise. [It] is going to be an ongoing problem for centuries to come, we will have to keep on adapting over and over again. It's going to be a whole new expensive lifestyle, costing trillions of dollars." Adding that "Sea level has a very long memory, so even if we start cooling temperatures the seas will continue to rise. It's a bit like trying to turn the Titanic around, rather than a speedboat."
Researchers have used a computer model that simulates the sea level rise in response to various emissions levels, looking both at the historical emissions since 1750, as well as the possible emissions scenario would be from 2015 to 2030, if countries were successful in meeting their Paris Agreement obligations. Currently, and according to the researchers' report, about half of the 20cm sea-level rise can be attributed to the world's top five greenhouse gas polluters:
The US was a key architect of the Paris deal, but this week Donald Trump formally triggered its exit from the agreement.
"Our results show that what we do today will have a huge effect in 2300. Twenty centimetres is very significant; it is basically as much sea-level rise as we've observed over the entire 20th century." So says Climate Analytics' Alexander Nauels, the lead author of the study - further adding that "To cause that with only 15 years of emissions is quite staggering."
The results themselves have revealed the daunting prospect of a near-endless advance of the oncoming seas. This will force countries to invest huge resources in order to defend key infrastructure, or in worst-case scenarios - ceding the certain areas to the tides. Many coastal cities around the world are already facing this challenge - recent research has found that land currently home to nearly 300 million people will be flooded at least once a year by 2050. This is the most likely future unless carbon emissions are drastically slashed. As the world continues to heat up, ocean water space is expanding, while the land-based glaciers and the two great polar ice caps are melting away, also adding to the expansion of the growing oceans.
According to the UN's climate science panel, the global sea-level rise could reach as much as 1.1 metres by the end of the century if the emissions aren't curbed, this situation could be exacerbated if the melting of the Antarctic turns out to be on the dire end of the spectrum of uncertainty we are currently at.
Clark finished, stating, "People are going to become less inclined to live by the coast and there are going to be sea level rise refugees. More severe cuts in emissions are certainly going to be required but the current Paris Pledges aren't enough to prevent the seas from rising for a long, long time."
