The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published the annual coal market report. Since it was first published in 2011, the IEA's annual Coal Report has served as the global benchmark for the medium-term forecast of coal supply, demand and trade.
For the first time the report, "Coal 2023 - Analysis and forecast to 2026", has predicted a drop in global coal consumption over its forecast period.
Coal 2023 sees global demand for coal rising by 1.4% in 2023, surpassing 8.5 billion tonnes for the first time. The overall global increase in demand for coal does not reflect the differences amongst regions of the world.
Consumption is on course to decline sharply in most advanced economies in 2023, including record drops in the European Union and the United States of around 20% each. Demand in emerging and developing economies, meanwhile, remains very strong, increasing by 8% in India and by 5% in China in 2023 due to rising demand for electricity and weak hydropower output.
The report outlines that "Overall, we expect global coal demand to drop in 2024 and plateau through 2026, even in the absence of governments announcing and implementing stronger clean energy and climate policies. As a result, global coal consumption in 2026 is set to be 2.3% lower than in 2023 – although China will have the last word."
Keisuke Sadamori, IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security, commented:
"We have seen declines in global coal demand a few times, but they were brief and caused by extraordinary events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union or the Covid-19 crisis. This time appears different, as the decline is more structural, driven by the formidable and sustained expansion of clean energy technologies . . . A turning point for coal is clearly on the horizon – though the pace at which renewables expand in key Asian economies will dictate what happens next, and much greater efforts are needed to meet international climate targets."
