Aurora Energy Research have published new data which indicates that UK power decarbonisation by 2035 is unlikely. As a result of current constraints in offshore wind, nuclear, and pumped hydro storage capacities, they believe the target is unrealistic. Offshore wind capacity would have to increase fourfold, nuclear power by 35% and pumped hydro storage by over 150%.
Other factors such as development timelines, market design uncertainties, grid expansion rates, and the developing status of important technologies such as carbon capture and storage and hydrogen make the goal "simply not feasible". The early 2040s has been suggested as a more realistic target date.
Marc Hedin, Head of Research for the UK and Ireland believes a more achievable target would be beneficial as "there is a high risk that concentrating efforts around an unachieveable target will ultimately impede" and although it is crucial to promote an ambitious goal, "policymakers need to provide a framework that is designed to deliver the target, otherwise it’s wishful thinking. No one invests because of a target.”
