The future is dreaming of a white Christmas

On the 12th day of Christmas Cedrec gave to me, a warning of less White Christmas' we will see.

Snow and Christmas go together in songs, films and Christmas cards, but for most parts of the UK, Christmas is only at the beginning of the period when it is likely to snow.

January and March is more likely to see snow than December, with snow or sleet falling an average 3.9 days in December, compared to:

• 5.3 days in January;
• 5.6 days in February; and
• 4.2 days in March.

White Christmas' were more frequent in the 18th and 19th centuries, and even more so before the change of calendar in 1752, which brought Christmas Day back by 12 days.

Climate change has brought higher average temperatures over land and sea, and this generally reduces the chance of a white Christmas.

When was the last white Christmas?

There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground (where more than 40% of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9am) four times since 1960: in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.

Technically the last white Christmas' in the UK include:

• 2021, with 6% of weather stations recording snow falling, but less than 1% of stations reporting any snow lying on the ground;
• 2020, with 6% of weather stations recording snow falling, however only 4% of stations reported any snow lying on the ground;
• 2017, with 11% of weather stations recording snow falling, but none reporting snow lying on the ground;
• 2016, with 6% of stations recording falling snow; and
• 2015, with 10% of stations recording snow.

There was no record of snow falling at any station in the UK in 2018 or 2019.

The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010 which was extremely unusual, as not only was the snow on the ground at 83% of stations (the highest amount ever recorded) but snow or sleet also fell at 19% of stations.

There was also a white Christmas in 2009, when 13% of stations recorded snow or sleet falling, and 57% reported snow lying on the ground.

Will we see white Christmas' in the future?

Since 1960 around half of the years have seen at least 5% of the network record snow falling on Christmas Day. Based on this we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a "white Christmas".

However the scene of widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day like the films is much rarer.

It is not impossible that we will see blankets of snow across the UK at Christmas again at some point, but the effects of climate change mean the required conditions for snow in the UK will occur less frequently, and chances could keep getting smaller as this century progresses.

According to MET Office predictions, under a high emissions scenario, there will be a decrease in both falling and "lying snow" across the UK between 2061 to 2080 compared with 1981 to 2000.

Last year MET Office analysis stated that:

• the South of England will no longer see freezing days by the year 2040 due to climate change;
• by 2080 only very high ground and parts of Northern Scotland could experience sub-zero daytime temperatures.

MET Office scientist, Dr Lizzie Kendon told the BBC at the time: "We're saying by the end of the century much of the lying snow will have disappeared entirely except over the highest ground".

"It's a big change... in the course of our lifetime".

The MET Office can accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand, so we will have to wait and see whether we have a white Christmas soon...