500 bird species could vanish in next century

Researchers have found that 500 bird species could vanish within the next century, calling for urgent "special recovery programmes" such as captive breeding and habitat restoration to rescue unique species.

According to the paper, birds such as the Puffin, European Turtle Dove and Great Bustard will be among those to disappear if trends continue, and their loss also threatens to unravel ecosystems across the globe.

Kerry Stewart, Lead Author of the research from the University of Reading, described the headline finding of the paper as a shocking statistic, and it is triple the number of birds that went extinct in the previous 500 years: "We face a bird extinction crisis unprecedented in modern times".

The paper, published in the journal, Nature Ecology and Evolution, examined data from nearly 10,000 birds, almost all of those known to exist, and used the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) data to predict extinction risk. Habitat loss, driven mainly by the expansion and intensification of agriculture, emerged as the most significant driver of species extinction.

However, even if habitat loss, hunting and climate breakdown stopped today, about 250 species could still die out, as they are already teetering on the brink of extinction. Researchers found that local conservation efforts may feel small but they are essential to save a species from going extinct.

Stewart said: "Many birds are already so threatened that reducing human impacts alone won’t save them. These species need special recovery programmes, like breeding projects and habitat restoration, to survive".

Nevertheless conservation success stories show it is possible to bring species back from the brink of extinction:

• by 1987 the California Condor, North America's largest bird, had gone extinct in wild - there were about 22 birds in captivity, which were then bred and released, and now there is a population of 350 in the wild;
• in the UK, the Bittern, a shy-reed-dwelling bird, went extinct as a breeding bird in 1870s because its wetland habitat had been drained for farming - now, thanks to habitat restoration, their population is at its highest in more than 200 years, with more than 280 booming male Bitterns recorded last year.

Professor Manuela González-Suárez, senior author of the study at the University of Reading, said: "Stopping threats is not enough. As many as 250-350 species will require complementary conservation measures … to survive the next century".

The latest State of the World's Birds report found nearly half of the planet's bird species are in decline. The main threats highlighted in the report include:

• habitat loss;
• logging;
• invasive species;
• exploitation of natural resources; and
• climate breakdown.

Stuart Butchart, Chief Scientist at BirdLife International, who was not involved in the research, said: "There is no magic bullet for solving the extinction crisis".

"Protected areas can play a key role, while abating threats from agriculture, logging, fisheries, hunting and other sources is essential. However, some species require targeted recovery efforts, involving interventions like captive breeding and release, translocation, or supplementary feeding, to overcome barriers to recovery".

"This paper adds to a growing body of evidence showing that actions across the whole framework will be necessary to stop human actions from driving species extinct".

For more information on this subject, see:

• Threat reduction must be coupled with targeted recovery programmes to conserve global bird diversity;
• State of the World's Birds 2024 Annual Update.