Global warming has been above 1.5°C across an entire year according to the latest data from the EUs climate service. This is the first time this has happened since word leaders pledged via the Paris Agreement in 2015 that long-term temperature rise would be limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Keeping the temperature rise at that level is crucial if the planet is to avoid the most damaging impacts of climate change. For instance, a 2018 UN report set out that the biggest risks, such as intense heatwaves and rising sea levels, were more likely at 2°C of warming than at 1.5°C.
Professor Liz Bentley of the Royal Meteorological Society acknowledged that this is a "significant" milestone, adding: "It's another step in the wrong direction. But we know what we've got to do".
Data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service from between February 2023 and January 2024 show that we reached 1.52°C of warming, with January being the eighth record warm month in a row. Despite this, the Paris Agreement has not yet been breached because that target is a long-term average rather than warming recorded over a single year; but the latest trends show we are getting closer to breaching it.
Whilst NASAs data indicates that the warming over that period was just under 1.5°C, it seems that all the major datasets do at least agree that the world is the warmest it has been since modern records began. This includes the fact that the world's sea surface is at its highest ever recorded average.
Whilst it should be noted that we're coming to the end of an El Niño year, which typically sees global air temperatures rise by about 0.2°C, global temperatures are expected to fall just below the 1.5°C once it ends, meaning we are dangerously close to breaching it under normal conditions. At this rate, it is estimated that we could cross the 1.5°C global average of warming within the next 10 years. And whilst crossing that threshold will not give us immediate climate instability, it is expected warming will accelerate after that point and potentially lead to irreversible changes.
Despite this news, all is not lost. Humans can dramatically reduce their influence over this warming trend by putting an end to fuelling the fire. Science has shown us what we can do and what impact that action will have; it is thought that we can stop global warming once we reach net zero. All we have to do is achieve it.
For more information on this subject, see:
