Analysis has found that the UK will miss its Clean Power 2030 targets for offshore wind, onshore wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) by 32GW.
The prediction is based on analysis from Cornwall Insight's GB Benchmark Power Curve, which highlights a concerning gap in renewable energy capacity, even after the government revised its target downward in its Clean Power 2030 Action Plan released in December.
Solar PV is projected to underperform the most, falling 16GW short of its 45-47GW target.
Cornwall Insight forecasts solar capacity to reach 29GW by 2030, a 70% increase from the 17GW installed currently, but still far below what is needed to meet government goals.
Onshore wind will hit a 10GW shortfall against the 27-29GW target. Policy changes have boosted the sector but ongoing planning challenges continue to delay large-scale projects, stalling progress.
Offshore wind is expected to come closest to its target, but it will still fall 6GW short of the 43-50GW goal. While the sector has benefited from consistent support through Contract for Difference rounds, rising costs are hampering growth.
The government's Clean Power 2030 Action Plan introduced measures to improve grid connections and invest in flexible technologies to balance intermittent generation. However, Cornwall Insight warns that these reforms may not take effect quickly enough to bridge the gap by 2030.
Compounding the issue is uncertainty around the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA), which could overhaul the electricity market. Without clarity, developers remain hesitant to invest, further jeopardising progress.
The predicted failure to meet 2030 targets raises questions about the UK's ability to meet rising energy demand and stay on course for its wider decarbonisation goals.
Grid connection delays, supply chain constraints, and uncertainty surrounding electricity market reforms are all creating a challenging environment for developers.
Tom Musker, Modelling Manager at Cornwall Insight, said: "Without swift and decisive action to resolve these issues, the UK risks falling significantly behind its clean power ambitions".
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